# Middle-Openness Compositional Test

## KAOPEN Tercile Composition

| Tercile | N | Countries | Mean GDP/cap | Mean OADR | Mean youth_dep | Crisis rate | CA reversal rate |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Low | 3135 | 130 | 9183 | 0.0830 | 0.6679 | 0.0182 | 0.1716 |
| Mid | 1739 | 142 | 17017 | 0.1105 | 0.5402 | 0.0201 | 0.1622 |
| High | 2282 | 95 | 34912 | 0.1516 | 0.4170 | 0.0153 | 0.1516 |

## Within-Income-Group KAOPEN Terciles → CA Reversal

| Variable | Q1 (Low)/Low KAOPEN | Q1 (Low)/High KAOPEN | Q2/Low KAOPEN | Q2/Mid KAOPEN | Q2/High KAOPEN | Q3/Low KAOPEN | Q3/Mid KAOPEN | Q3/High KAOPEN |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 1.4159* | -3.0406** | -1.4985** | -4.0465*** | -1.5288 | -2.2343** | 0.0180 | 0.1983 |
| | (0.7972) | (1.4946) | (0.7187) | (1.5564) | (1.1483) | (0.8729) | (0.9300) | (0.9573) |
| Z_2 | -0.2282* | 0.4917** | 0.1841* | 0.5862** | 0.2391 | 0.3199*** | 0.0470 | -0.0030 |
| | (0.1297) | (0.2382) | (0.1103) | (0.2320) | (0.1764) | (0.1240) | (0.1320) | (0.1345) |
| Z_3 | 0.0095* | -0.0204** | -0.0063 | -0.0230** | -0.0098 | -0.0128*** | -0.0032 | -0.0009 |
| | (0.0056) | (0.0101) | (0.0046) | (0.0094) | (0.0073) | (0.0049) | (0.0052) | (0.0053) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.0034 | -0.0097** | -0.0047 | 0.0078 | -0.0093** | -0.0003 | -0.0019 | -0.0011 |
| | (0.0032) | (0.0041) | (0.0034) | (0.0071) | (0.0044) | (0.0034) | (0.0040) | (0.0050) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | 0.0042 | 0.0167 | 0.0353 | -0.0362 | -0.0494 | 0.0400* | -0.0218 | 0.0210** |
| | (0.0182) | (0.0118) | (0.0245) | (0.0276) | (0.0389) | (0.0239) | (0.0334) | (0.0101) |
| rgdp_growth | -0.0002 | -0.0023 | -0.0019 | -0.0057 | 0.0147*** | -0.0027 | -0.0013 | -0.0033 |
| | (0.0027) | (0.0034) | (0.0022) | (0.0070) | (0.0053) | (0.0026) | (0.0034) | (0.0031) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| N | 811 | 375 | 665 | 233 | 382 | 468 | 440 | 376 |
| Pseudo-R² | 0.0081 | 0.0570 | 0.0313 | 0.0460 | 0.0443 | 0.0428 | 0.0304 | 0.0587 |

## Continuous Z × KAOPEN Interaction (Logit)

N = 5489, Pseudo-R² = 0.0329

- Z_1: MFX = -0.5688***
- Z_2: MFX = 0.0986***
- Z_3: MFX = -0.0045***
- Z_1_x_kaopen: MFX = 0.1008
- Z_2_x_kaopen: MFX = -0.0139
- Z_3_x_kaopen: MFX = 0.0005

## Z × KAOPEN with GDP per Capita Control

N = 5074, Pseudo-R² = 0.0305

- Z_1: MFX = -0.6448***
- Z_2: MFX = 0.1056***
- Z_3: MFX = -0.0047***
- Z_1_x_kaopen: MFX = 0.1374
- Z_2_x_kaopen: MFX = -0.0184
- Z_3_x_kaopen: MFX = 0.0007
- gdp_pc_ppp: MFX = 0.0000

*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01. Within-income tests split sample by GDP/capita quartile, then compute KAOPEN terciles within each quartile.*